The NFL Draft hits Las Vegas for the first time (well, maybe), and while there’s no gamble with the first pick, the others can surely be a crapshoot. Heisman-winning QB Joe Burrow (LSU) is almost certainly coming home to his native Ohio to play for the Cincinnati Bengals, who desperately need a franchise star. Edge-rushing dynamo Chase Young (Ohio State) appears destined to join new head coach Ron Rivera in Washington as the second overall pick, but with heralded Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa’s health apparently checking out well, the second overall pick could be a bargaining chip for several QB-hungry teams that are vying for his services. The NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis also did its job in heightening the market for some prospects, and bringing down the value of others. And yes, running backs are still around, too.
With that in mind, here’s my first mock draft, with some surprises along the way:
- Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU.
Let’s be truthful here: The Bengals should want Chase Young. However, the Bengals should need Joe Burrow. 5,000-plus passing yards, 55 pass touchdowns to just six interceptions – topped with a Heisman Trophy and National Championship to boot – are numbers no team with the top pick should look past. Andy Dalton’s on his way out and Ryan Findley was never in. The Bengals are staring at 10-plus years of a franchise star. - Washington Redskins: Chase Young, DE, Ohio State.
Defense-minded Ron Rivera’s only been in Washington for a cup of coffee and already has Christmas coming to him sooner than later. While the Redskins have other needs for the team, this is a desire for a franchise mired in dysfunction and lack of star power for years. Young is far and away the best prospect in this draft, and he’ll be wreaking havoc off the edge for years to come. With 30.5 sacks in three seasons with the Buckeyes, and Ryan Kerrigan entering the final year of his contract, the Redskins will land as one of the most fortunate No. 2 spots in NFL Draft history. The ‘Skins will be seduced to trade down for a team that craves Tua Tagovailoa at No. 2, but Young is can’t-miss and possibly Rivera’s next Julius Peppers. - Detroit Lions: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn.
This could be another pick that’s trade-worthy, but for the sake of my mock draft, I’ll go with the best player for this team. Damon Harrison’s out the door, and the Lions’ bottom-tier defense needs some aggression up front, something that A’Shawn Robinson’s not providing on a consistent basis. Brown’s a massive disruptor who can have a Ndamukong Suh-level presence on this defense, minus the dirty play. With shutdown corner Darius Slay likely hitting the road via trade, the Lions need someone new to build from defensively. - New York Giants: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa.
While general manager Dave Gettleman has hinted at trading this pick, the G-Men could land a major addition by staying pat. Wirfs ascended the draft with a stellar Combine outing (4.85 40-yard dash time was best among linemen over 320 pounds, 36.5-inch vertical a Combine record for linemen), and he’s just what Daniel Jones needs to develop in the pocket after 38 sacks in 13 games last season. Wirfs is a mauler at right tackle who will add toughness and stability to a line that likely loses Mike Remmers to free agency. Along with Nate Solder, the tackle position is locked and ready for Jones and superstar running back Saquon Barkley to work. - Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama.
After … five seconds of deliberation, “Tanking for Tua” has finally led to a cash-in for the Dolphins. These faithful fans have waited long enough for a quarterback to save them long-term. Tagovailoa, without injury, is arguably the No. 1 pick in this draft (87 pass TD, 11 INT in career). He could very well be the signal caller that can bring Miami back to real contention since the Dan Marino days. - Los Angeles Chargers: Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson.
Surprise! Philip Rivers is out and … Isaiah Simmons is in. In the name of Tom Brady (likely courting LAC in free agency), the Chargers have other concerns. Simmons, who’s an immediate playmaker and much-needed addition to the linebacking core and secondary, was one of the brightest stars at the Combine with an eye-popping 4.38 40-yard time. He’s a jack-up-the-offense-of-all-trades player with 100-plus tackles, seven sacks and three interceptions last season. Aligning him with Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram (if he re-signs) and Derwin James is a combination for major damage for the Bolts. - Carolina Panthers: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State.
Lucky number seven for new owner David Tepper and head coach Matt Rhule. Okudah is among the best prospects in this draft, period, showing shutdown corner ability with excellence in man coverage. James Bradberry is hitting free agency; Okudah can replace him and exceed his production. Yes, the Panthers do have serious issues against the run that need addressing, but Okudah’s too good to pass up here, as he’s far and away the best at his position in this draft class. - Arizona Cardinals: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina.
Just when you thought it was okay to go CeeDee Lamb for Kyler Murray, here’s a can’t-miss curveball for one of the league’s worst defenses. Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson need someone up front to make their jobs much easier, and Kinlaw will there for them to help make life on offense frustrating. He’s a very physical, strong pass-rushing tackle who will start Day 1. The receiver pool in this draft is very deep; the Cardinals won’t find another Kinlaw in later rounds. - Jacksonville Jaguars: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma.
The shock in your system ends quickly, as Lamb is off the board after the dream scenario with the Cardinals falls through. With Nick Foles being dangled around in trade rumors, Gardner Minshew appears to have the lead on the starting quarterback quandary in Jacksonville. If Minshew’s going to develop, he’ll need an arsenal to work with. DJ Chark emerged as a quality receiver, but he needs a dance partner. Lamb, a big-play receiver who averaged at least 17 yards per catch at Oklahoma, enters as the 1A wideout who could find his way into the No. 1 position in due time. - Cleveland Browns: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville.
If Baker Mayfield’s going to bounce back from a dismal sophomore season, he needs to do so standing upright in the pocket. Sacked 40 times last season, Mayfield’s no good for stud receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry if he’s scrambling for his life. And to top that off, the best option, Nick Chubb, needs an offensive line that will bring out the best in him. Becton, a huge, powerful anchor who can start on either side, will pave the way for more yards and future success for Chubb and Mayfield. Besides, running a 5.10 in the 40-yard dash at over 350 pounds screams top-10 pick. - New York Jets: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama.
Could anyone remember the last time the Jets drafted a bonafide No. 1 wide receiver? If you have to think for a bit, then it must be a faster thought on who the Jets should take. Jeudy could arguably be the best receiver in this class. He has the speed and talent to be better than the last first-round pick at receiver for the Jets, Santana Moss. Heck, he could be the best thing for Sam Darnold at this point, as Robby Anderson walks out the door, and a more dynamic, sure-fire star receiver comes in. - Las Vegas Raiders: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon.
And business has just picked up. Faith in Derek Carr has diminished a bit from the front office and Jon Gruden, prompting a need for his replacement. Herbert had a great showing at the Senior Bowl and has the size, definite arm strength and mobility to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. While Carr’s been accurate (at least 68 percent completion percentage in last two seasons), he hasn’t been a deep-ball dynamo. Herbert may be able to provide that deep ball with the same level of accuracy. He wasn’t a dominant player at Oregon, but he thrived in a run-first attack. Josh Jacobs will make Herbert’s development a lot smoother, and Gruden will finally have his future signal caller to move forward with, while moving Carr will get the Raiders more assets to build upon. - Indianapolis Colts: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State.
Indy ran out of (Andrew) Luck right before the 2019 season, but this pick will get this franchise back in Love, and back into the mix in the AFC. Garnering Patrick Mahomes comparisons, Love can make any throw from any place, and he skyrocketed up the draft boards because of it. Despite a rough 2019 season which saw a new coaching regime and several key position players gone, Love’s talent and confidence for big plays is first-round worthy. He has his flaws, but Frank Reich is the coach to get rid of them. The Colts may have better “Luck” with this franchise quarterback. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: K’Lavon Chaisson, OLB, LSU.
Going off of head coach Bruce Arians assessment, defense is the bigger need for the Bucs, despite uncertainty at quarterback. And Arians is on point with this one. There’s going to be holes on an already-shaky defense entering next season, with Jason Pierre-Paul in a contract year, Carl Nassib maybe not being on the team due to free agency and last season’s sack leader Shaq Barrett facing a franchise tag. Enter Chaisson, a versatile edge rusher whose best are ahead of him. With double-digit sacks in each of his last three seasons, Chaisson could be a huge factor alongside Barrett, if the Bucs are smart to pay him. - Denver Broncos: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia.
Rumblings are abound for John Elway to draft a speedy receiver to pair with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, but new starter Drew Lock needs to stay comfy in the pocket first. Garett Bolles hasn’t panned out after three seasons, and he’s facing a club option after next season. Thomas is an experience left tackle who’s strong in the run game, two things that catch the eye of Elway. Thomas will be Lock’s anchor for a long time, making life for Sutton, Fant and another likely wideout out of a deep receiver draft class much easier. - Atlanta Falcons: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama.
Safety hasn’t been a safe position for the Falcons for the past few years, as Keanu Neal has struggled to stay on the field and Ricardo Allen, despite playing all 16 games in 2019, is expected to be out several months recovering from shoulder surgery. Dan Quinn has to find stability at the position to strengthen a secondary that only has Desmond Trufant to lean on. McKinney is an all-around safety who can be used up front and in the back end. Consider him an upgrade over Allen. - Dallas Cowboys: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida.
While the Cowboys spend the offseason figuring out all of their offensive issues (to tag or not to tag Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper), there’s some immediate attention that needs to be paid to their underwhelming defense. The secondary lacks efficiency (only 7 INT last season), and a playmaker is sorely required. Henderson, a quick ball hawk (4.39 40-yard dash time) who needs to work on tackling, is the answer. He has No. 1 corner potential and will make an immediate impact on a secondary that’ll likely lose Byron Jones to free agency. - Miami Dolphins (via Pittsburgh Steelers): Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama.
Tua gets a fellow ‘Bama star in the first round, but on the defensive end. Diggs, brother of Vikings star receiver Stefon Diggs and a former receiver himself, is a multifaceted threat who has good ball skills at corner and can return kicks. He’ll be a surefire starter for a defense that allowed a league-high 39 touchdown passes last season, and he could be a possible wild card type of talent contributing on special teams and maybe even offense. - Las Vegas Raiders (via Chicago Bears): Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama.
New franchise quarterback Justin Herbert needs his go-to guy, and Ruggs is his man, as he has the ability to take the top off a defense. Averaging 18.6 yards per reception at Alabama, Ruggs is a big-play dynamo fit for the Vegas crowd, something Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow have failed to do during their tenure. “Antonio who?” signs will fill the new Vegas stadium as Ruggs will show Jon Gruden and company what a franchise wideout is made of. Sin City will roar with this pick. - Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams): Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State.
Breakout pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue, despite receiving the franchise tag, is reportedly not interested in signing long-term, and the Jags are looking at a tag-and-trade. With Calais Campbell on the final year of his deal, a new rush specialist is needed to pair with up-and-coming Josh Allen. Gross-Matos, with 17.5 sacks in the past two seasons at Penn State, is long and developing, but he’ll have a cushion playing alongside a future Pro Bowler in Allen. Sacksonville lives on. - Philadelphia Eagles – Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson.
The Eagles receiving corps was the General Hospital of the NFL last season, as Carson Wentz was throwing to guys off the street and Craigslist ads down the stretch. Philly’s likely given up on Alshon Jeffery, can’t trust DeSean Jackson to be a No. 1 and can’t rely on TE Zach Ertz as the top wideout every game. Higgins is a perfect fit for this group, as he’s a touchdown waiting to happen with 25 receiving scores in the past two seasons. Twelve of Wentz’s 27 touchdown passes went to receivers in 2019. Higgins will have something to say about that next season. - Buffalo Bills – Netane Muti, OG, Fresno State.
Becoming a contender requires an identity that can win over. Staying a contender requires an identity that can continue to win over. The Bills are powered by their run-first attack (8th in the NFL last season), whether it’s in the backfield or by the legs of franchise star QB Josh Allen. Muti is injury-prone, but he has the athleticism to fit this scheme. Quinton Spain is entering free agency; for the sake of Allen and the rush attack, Muti is needed to keep things rolling for the Bills’ run-heavy offense, which was their tool for a playoff appearance last season. - New England Patriots – Kenneth Murray, ILB, Oklahoma.
Tom Brady or not, Bill Belichick is about his defense, and his continuous desire to strengthen it. Elandon Roberts is entering free agency and doesn’t warrant please-come-back value. Murray’s a tackle machine with 100-plus takedowns in each of his last two seasons. He still needs some tooling in the pass coverage aspect, but his ceiling is high for this squad. - New Orleans Saints – A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa.
While this looks like a strange pick on paper, bear with me here. I’m certain that the Saints will back the Brinks truck up on Cameron Jordan before he hits free agency (2021), but 2018 first-round pick Marcus Davenport has been hamstrung with injuries in each of his two seasons and backup Trey Hendrickson is entering the final year of his rookie deal. They need insurance on a line that powered this overall defense. Epenesa, with 22 sacks in the past two years, will cover that ground with his knack for finding the quarterback. - Minnesota Vikings – Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama.
Something just wasn’t right with the Vikings pass attack last season. Ranked 23rd last season, they were banged up at receiver with Adam Thielen playing just 10 games, but looking further, the offensive line was messier than imagined. Yes, Kirk Cousins was only sacked 28 times, but LT Riley Reiff was the culprit on many of them. He’s reportedly a candidate to be cut. Wills, a steal this late in the draft, is at home at right tackle, and Brian O’Neill has that spot covered, but Wills’ talent to too much to pass up here. Wills is balanced in the pass and run and can be a nasty blocker. Vikings should try their hand and give Wills the chance to show his stuff on the left side, especially considering how much a void Reiff creates at the position. - Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans) – Patrick Queen, OLB, LSU.
The Dolphins used the No. 5 overall pick to select their leader on offensive in Tagovailoa, but they now must find their leader on defense. Queen, coming off an efficient championship season (85 tackles, 12 for loss, 3 sacks) and solid Combine (4.5 40-yard dash time), has the leadership instincts to help elevate a defense that needs massive retooling. While lacking extensive starting experience, he makes up with a three-down ability to make plays and open field tackling. Queen’s an immediate starter in this group. - Seattle Seahawks – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU.
While Shaquil Griffin could see a new deal with the Seahawks after a contract year next season, the secondary needs to return to Legion of Boom-like status to get Seattle over the hump. Fulton, having allowed an eye-opening combined six first downs and touchdowns last season, can provide that. The defense ranked 27th against the pass last season with LB K.J. Wright leading the way with three picks. Fulton has shutdown corner potential and should revitalize this once-proud secondary. - Baltimore Ravens – Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU.
Trading down for linebacking help and more picks could be had for Baltimore, but Blacklock fills an immediate need. Michael Pierce and Domata Peko are facing free agency, prompting Blacklock’s presence up front. Blacklock is a gap filler with underrated pass rushing technique. Coming off a missed 2018 season due to a torn Achilles, Blacklock bounced back strong and powered his way into first-round discussion. The Ravens will have a gem to develop with this pick. - Tennessee Titans – Josh Jones, OT, Houston.
Jack Conklin will command major money when he becomes a free agent, maybe too much for the Titans to afford with Derrick Henry awaiting a new deal. Jones is that insurance policy, and at a cheaper rate. While raw, his athleticism, size (6’7″, 311 lbs) and strong Senior Bowl could propel him to starting right tackle status quite soon. The Titans’ commitment to the offensive line is the selling point for their mountain of a running back, who will be commanding a new, extremely rich contract this offseason. - Green Bay Packers – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU.
If anyone watched an inkling of Packers football last season, it was clear as day that Aaron Rodgers’s offense was a bit receiver-challenged. Outside of franchise star Davante Adams, no other wideout topped 500 receiving yards in 2019. Rodgers needs another receiver who can separate, and Jefferson is the answer. The LSU standout tied the nation with 111 receptions and added 1,500-plus receiving yards and 18 touchdowns in 2019. That resume will lead to a starting job next season. - San Francisco 49ers – Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Minnesota.
Yes, the Super Bowl was lost for the 49ers on Kyle Shanahan’s apprehension to go for broke (again) and Jimmy Garoppolo’s lack of big throws down the stretch, but there was a breakdown defensively that couldn’t be ignored, especially when the heralded unit allowed 21 unanswered points in the 4th quarter, including a demoralizing third-and-long completion from the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill. Son of top-notch cornerback Antoine Winfield, the younger Winfield can be the tool to fix that leak in the defense. He’s a solid plug-and-play at either safety spot and is good at defending tight ends, traits that teams are scouting harder for nowadays with Travis Kelce and the 49ers’ own George Kittle terrorizing secondaries. Also, Jimmie Ward has been an injury risk for most of his career, and his run could be up in San Francisco. - Kansas City Chiefs – Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan.
While much could be said for the Chiefs defense, preserving Mahomes is always the top priority. There’s potential holes in the interior, as OG Stefen Wisniewski is entering free agency and C Austin Reiter is in the final year of his deal. Ruiz has versatility at both positions and can be ready to assume either roles down the road. He’s an excellent downfield blocker who should fit Andy Reid’s scheme smoothly.
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